Market Recap: November 2025

Market commentary

• The government shutdown has ended, but its impact lingers as key economic reports remain delayed.
• Private reports show that consumer confidence fell sharply to a 7-month low while the ISM Manufacturing Index also declined.
• Current forecasts call for GDP to expand at an annualized 2.8% in the third quarter, followed by a deceleration to roughly 1.2% in the fourth quarter.
• Payrolls rose 119k in September, but upward unemployment (4.4%), weak wages, and temp job cuts signal a cyclical slowdown in hiring despite steady jobless claims.

Select economic and market data

Equities

• As of November 20, the S&P 500 was down 4.4% for the month, but a late five-day rally secured its seventh consecutive monthly gain. Meanwhile, a tech slump pushed the NASDAQ into its first monthly decline since March.
• Eight of the S&P 500’s 11 sectors posted gains, but performance varied widely. Health Care (+9.3%) and Communication Services (+6.4%) led the pack, while Technology (-4.3%) and Consumer Discretionary (-2.4%) lagged.

Fixed income

• The Fed lowered rates by 25 bps in both September and October, and expectations for another cut in December continue to build.
• Bond yields continued to fall, while corporate credit spreads stayed near historic lows, resulting in another strong month for fixed-income returns.

Strategic outlook

• Some caution is warranted on equities in the near term, particularly in large-cap stocks with above-average valuations; currently favoring small-cap and mid-cap domestic stocks longer-term.
• Near-average expected returns are projected for fixed income with the Fed on pause and rates reflective of conditions.
• Above-average volatility is likely given central bank involvement and geopolitical uncertainty.